GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 563, 15 August 2021

Afghanistan: The international failure fastens the downfall
Harsimran Singh Sondhi

What happened?
On 11 August, the 'extended' Troika Plus meeting on discussions of Afghan settlement between Russia, China, the United States and Pakistan was held in Doha, Qatar. According to the Qatari Foreign Ministry, the meeting took place behind closed doors. The meeting's agenda was to examine the present situation in Kabul and curb rampant Taliban offences.

On 14 August, the Taliban took control of the strategic Mazar-e-Sharif in the north. On 13 August, Herat and Ghazni fell. On 12 August, Herat fell; so did Kandahar. On 14 August, President Ashraf Ghani spoke for the first time and said that the remobilization of the Afghan forces was of top priority. Also, on 14 August, President Biden President Biden announced that he would send 5000 American troops to evacuate the US and allied personnel. According to a Wall Street Journal report, these new steps by Biden "don't represent a major course correction in his decision to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan and largely consist of adjustments to moves already underway as he seeks to disengage from America's longest war."

On 13 August, NATO allies met in the North Atlantic Council to discuss the present situation in Afghanistan. The alliance condemned the Taliban's growing attacks "on Afghan civilians" and said: "We continue to assess the developments on the ground, and we are in constant contact with the Afghan authorities and the rest of the international community." NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said: "Our aim remains to support the Afghan government and security forces. We maintain our diplomatic presence in Kabul and the security of our personnel is paramount." 

What is the background?
First, the finality of the US withdrawal. The US has set 31 August 2021 as the deadline to withdraw from Afghanistan completely and has decided to end their longest ongoing war. President Biden said earlier: "The Afghans must decide their own future, and it is an unwinnable war." Despite media pressure and statements by senior military leaders who have fought in Afghanistan, Biden's decision to withdraw seems to be final. This means Afghanistan would have to handle the fighting on its own. While the American troops have slowly reduced their role in the fighting, they have been providing crucial air, cyber and intelligence support to the Afghan forces.

Second, the weakness of the Afghan Security Forces. The pace at which the provinces and the capitals have fallen over the last two weeks highlight the capabilities and willingness to fight the Taliban. From the available reports, it appears, it was more of a walkover for the Taliban than a takeover following a tough fight.

Third, the international response to the Taliban offensive. Despite the Troika meeting, statements from the UN, and a NATO meeting in Brussels, there has been no action taken so far. The statement by the UN Secretary-General that Afghanistan is "spinning out of control" is not backed by any action at the UN Security Council.

What does it mean?
Afghanistan is on the verge of being taken over by the Taliban. Though there is a discussion on "power-sharing", the Taliban would want otherwise. Rather, they would press for complete control. Why would they want to share power, if they can take control?

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